Quantifying the Bullwhip E ect in a Simple Supply Chain : The Impact of Forecasting , Lead Times and Information
نویسندگان
چکیده
An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip eeect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this eeect for simple, two-stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our model includes two of the factors commonly assumed to cause the bullwhip eeect: demand forecasting and order lead times. We extend these results to multiple stage supply chains with and without centralized customer demand information and demonstrate that the bullwhip eeect can be reduced, but not completely eliminated, by centralizing demand information.
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Frank Chen • Zvi Drezner • Jennifer K. Ryan • David Simchi-Levi Decision Sciences Department, National University of Singapore, 119260 Singapore Department of MS & IS, California State University, Fullerton, California 92834 School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 Department of IE & MS, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 [email protected]....
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